Louisiana Legislative Auditor Forecasts Local Revenue Shortfall Amounts

The Louisiana Legislative Auditor issued late last week a forecast of estimated revenue losses for local governments for the remainder of fiscal year 2020 (which ends 6/30/2020), and fiscal year 2021 (which runs 7/1/2020 – 6/30/2021). The forecast has an optimistic and pessimistic estimate of revenue losses.

From the summary:

We estimate that parish governing authorities, municipalities, school boards, and sheriffs will collectively experience revenue losses in sales, ad valorem, and severance taxes and mineral royalties ranging from $404.7 million to $1.1 billion (2.3% to 6.9%) during fiscal years 2020 and 2021, with an average total loss of $787.5 million (4.6%).

These losses would be between 1.0% to 2.8% of total local government revenues from all sources, or 1.4% to 4.0% of general revenues (which excludes grants and charges for services). These estimates are based on assumptions that the number of people employed in Louisiana will decrease by 197,000 to 317,000 (as distinguished from unemployment claims) and will take two to five years to recover, along with other specific assumptions about different sectors of the state’s economy, as explained in Appendix A of the report.

See here the summary.

The report also estimates revenue losses for all the local governmental agencies in the state – cities, towns, schools, sheriffs, police juries, etc.

For Lincoln Parish, the report forecasts the following averages:


2020 – $567 thousand reduction (-3.3%)
2021 – $1.2 million reduction (-7.4%)

Police Jury:

2020 – $207 thousand reduction (-1.6%)
2021 – $379 thousand reduction (-3.1%)

School Distict:

2020 – $751 thousand reduction (-2.0%)
2021 – $1.5 million reduction (-5.0%)


2020 – $94 thousand reduction (-1.3%)
2021 – $188 thousand reduction (-2.6%)

See here the complete report.

Again this is but a forecast, and the actual shortfalls may vary, depending upon how quickly Gov. Bel Edwards ends the economic lockdowns that have been in place since mid-March, and how quickly Louisiana’s economy recovers, if ever, from that self-inflicted economic injury.

All this is a stark lesson to the public sector that ALL your revenues ultimately originate with businesses and taxpayers who work there. It is in the best economic interest of the public sector to encourage a healthy, growing economy.

Otherwise, you all die of revenue starvation.

One Response to “Louisiana Legislative Auditor Forecasts Local Revenue Shortfall Amounts”

  1. WeightWatcher Says:

    Bout time we had a local and state gubmint diet.

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